Schrödinger’s Housing Market
It’s a seller’s market. It’s a buyer’s market. It’s a seller’s market. It’s a— (wait, is that price drop blood in the water?)
We’re in an ultra-weird liminal market. On one hand, we still look like a sellers’ market. But on the other hand, maybe we’re in a buyers’ market? Or, at least, what appears to be a buyers’ market?
For starters, we seem to be edging out of what I consider the industry standard balanced market of 4 months worth of available, purchasable housing. And at 4.76, a lot of people are going to be telling you that the New Hampshire real estate market is normalizing.
As a buyer, your key really is the number of days on market.
Over the last 6 months, 2,582 homes sat on the market for more than 15 days. Of those, 43% dropped their price.
Of the homes that did not drop their price, 74% are still currently for sell. They are just sitting there—unsold, unloved, unmoved. That’s 1,804 homes taking up oxygen on the market. Ghost listings. Phantom inventory.
Once we adjust for luxury listings priced at $2M or higher, we see
Average List Price: $755,012
Median List Price: $670,300
Highest List Price (under $2M): $1,999,900
Lowest List Price: $49,900
And days on market:
Average: 44.5 days
Median: 32 days
Shortest: 15 days
Longest: 182 days
At that average price point, you’re getting three bedrooms, two bathrooms. We’re not talking extravagant. These should be move-up homes for dual-income professionals. Instead, they’re sitting ducks in a 7%+ interest rate world.
And if you are looking for a deal, here are the top 10 towns to look:
Top Deal TownsSans Luxury)
Nashua — 24
Laconia — 23
Bedford — 22
Conway — 20
Manchester — 19
Hampton — 18
Berlin — 17
Portsmouth — 16
Dover — 16
Rochester — 15
If you’re working with a Realtor, you need to tell them that you want to look at these overpriced homes, because the seller is probably ready to come down in price. And if you are the only one knocking on the door?
And if you’re a seller, and we adjust for the 74% of the homes not selling, our active listings drop from 2,397 to 1,313, and our adjusted months of inventory: 2.61. The idea of a cooling market all of a sudden becomes an illusion propped up by stagnant inventory. This is a seller’s market on fire. Bidding wars still happening. But if you don’t price right? Well, see above.
The Bare Bones Numbers 💀📉
📍 Statewide New Hampshire Housing Market
Active Listings: 2,397
Closed Sales (Last 6 Months): 3,023
Pending Sales: 969
Median Days on Market (DOM): 6
Inventory: 4.76 months
Affordability Index: 54
📍 Seacoast Area
Active Listings: 396
Closed Transactions (Last 6 Months): 620
Pending Transactions: 222
Days on Market (DOM):
Highest: 104
Average: 10
Median: 6
Pricing Trends:
Lowest List Price: $145,000
Lowest Sold Price: $135,000
Average List Price: $751,073
Average Sold Price: $758,326
Median List Price: $615,000
Median Sold Price: $625,000
📍 Tri-City Area (Dover, Somersworth, Rochester)
Active Listings: 80
📍 Durham, Newmarket, Madbury & Lee
Active Listings: 26
📍 Portsmouth & Newington
Active Listings: 40
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