The Government Is ‘Fixing’ Your Tax Refund—By People You Never Voted For. And That Should Terrify You.
The Monday Blueprint 2.3.25: Essays I've read and last week's market report
Here are some financial resources for wildfire victims.
I am absolutely terrified.
In 2021, I launched my real estate career and was told by my first continuing education instructor to never reveal my political leanings. She said the U.S. was polarized. Democrat versus Republican. Right versus left. Liberal against Conservative. The moment you shared your political affiliation; you would alienate half of your customers and lose that business. And why risk cash?
For the first two years, I had a backup job. If selling houses didn’t work out, I’d be fine. But in 2024, I cut the safety net. No more second income. Real estate became my only paycheck. If I don’t sell a house, I don’t eat. Worse—my kids don’t eat either.
Sharing my political affiliation is a high stakes game.
I am anti corporate authoritarianism, anti-weaponized populism, anti-kleptocracy, anti- Orbánization, anti proto-fascist, and anti pre-dictatorship. Anti-Trump.
In late 2024, when Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), he appointed Elon Musk as its head. DOGE's mandate is to streamline federal operations and reduce government spending. Which is a great idea—let’s look at our actual budget and spending habits. And Musk brought along a team of close associates to spearhead this initiative.
Musk and his team stormed into the treasury office. I imagine David Lebryk, a career civil servant, his ID badge swinging slightly as he shifted his weight, red flush creeping along his forehead, along his white tuft hairline. Since 2014, Lebryk served as the Fiscal Assistant Secretary, having begun his career in 1989 as a Presidential Management Intern at the Treasury. Musk, taller, wiry, electric, his voice sharp, clipped, demanding access to the nation’s checkbook, the South African accent flattening into a growl. “We need to stop payments,” he said, spittle catching the overhead fluorescents. “We don’t do that,” says Lebryk.
Musk’s people—men and women in stiff suits, pocket protectors, horn-rimmed glasses— amongst the keyboards, the whirring printers, the ghostly uncomfortable silence of shuffling papers, roamed the cubicles like a pack of wild dogs.
On Friday January 31, Lebryk stood in his paneled office, staring out a long window. He removed his tortoiseshell glasses with both hands, holding them still at his waist. The morning light coming in was soft. Everything about his posture—his squared shoulders, the slight furrow in his brow—carried the weight of a country shifting. The end of certainty, stability, democracy. A quiet resignation. The stillness before collapse. The tipping point toward something dark.
Then the Treasury Department received via email Lebryk’s notice of leave. By Friday evening, Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick to lead Treasury, okayed Musk’s access to the payments system.
The U.S. Treasury’s payment system is the backbone of the nation’s financial infrastructure, a vast and intricate network that processes nearly 90 percent of all federal payments. Every pension check, every contractor’s invoice, every federal employee’s salary—each transaction is approved and pushed out from this labyrinth of accounts. In sheer scale, this system handles more than a billion transactions annually, distributing over $5 trillion, according to CNN where others have even higher estimations at $6 trillion. Covering everything from Social Security and Medicare to federal salaries, grants, and business payments. This is the financial lifeline of the country, operated by a select few with access to an unprecedented flow of money.
But it’s not just money at stake—it’s data, deeply personal information of millions of Americans. Birthdates, Social Security numbers, tax filings, W-2s. Phumzile Van Damme, a tech and human rights fellow at Harvard, summed it up bluntly in a post on X:
Let me tell you about the new gold rush. The rush for the most valuable commodity in the digital age: personal data. And one man, one Elon Musk, just hit the motherlode. He was handed keys to your vault. Once, fortunes were built on gold and oil. Now, they're built on you—your clicks, searches, habits, and digital shadow. Data is a multi-trillion-dollar industry. Combined with your Social Security number, address, and more? That's the finest gold.
When systems like this move money, they also move the identity of every person connected to them. And in an age where data is more valuable than oil, that information in the wrong hands is a catastrophe waiting to happen.
TIMELINE
🔹 January 25: Trump appoints Musk’s “DOGE” team to a new government spending oversight board with little public explanation.
🔹 January 27: Internal memos suggest Musk’s team has requested access to Treasury’s payment system. This system processes Social Security, federal paychecks, Medicare benefits, tax refunds, grants, and military spending.
🔹 January 30: David Lebryk, the highest-ranking Treasury career official, resigns after clashing with Musk’s allies over their demand for direct payment system access. He’s served under multiple administrations and managed the national debt ceiling. His departure is a red flag.
🔹 February 1: Politico reports that Musk and his team may now have access to the Treasury system, though the extent remains unclear. The Washington Post warns that this system has never been used for political agendas—until now.
We don’t know the full scope of what Musk and Trump’s team are doing behind closed doors, but one thing is clear: this is an unprecedented power grab over the federal government’s purse strings.
Shortly after Musk’s takeover of America’s checkbook, he began claiming discoveries of massive fraud. According to Politco, “that the federal government could be losing between $233 billion and $521 billion each year due to fraud. Federal agencies reported $236 billion in improper payments in the 2024 fiscal year. The bulk came from Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, pandemic relief loans to small businesses, Treasury’s earned income tax credit and Social Security payments.”
The headlines are startling to say the least.
However, only a few programs—social security, Earned Income Tax Credit & Tax Refunds, and Federal Employee & Military Paychecks—are directly funded by Treasury.
If the fraud’s bulk is coming from Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and pandemic relief loans….the majority of the fraud, when it happens, is at the local level—where individuals, businesses, and providers interact with these programs. For example:
A business falsely claiming pandemic relief through the Small Business Administration.
An individual filing fraudulent unemployment claims with their state's unemployment office.
A healthcare provider overbilling Medicare or Medicaid for services not rendered.
The Treasury's ability to detect fraud is limited to the data and transactions it directly manages. Because many federal programs, such as Medicaid and unemployment insurance, are administered at the state level, fraud in these programs typically occurs during the distribution phase managed by state or local agencies.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury has, however, implemented enhanced fraud detection processes, including the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence, to prevent and recover improper payments. In Fiscal Year 2024, these efforts led to the prevention and recovery of over $4 billion!
But identifying and addressing fraud beyond the three specific programs the Treasury directly funds will require audits and investigations at the state or local leve—not the federal.
But Musk isn’t necessarily accusing Treasury of committing fraud; he’s accusing the Treasury of failing to catch fraud—of being too slow, too bureaucratic, too inefficient. His argument is that, under his leadership, payments can be optimized to prevent waste. Musk’s fraud narrative blurs the distinction between fraud that happens at the federal level—where Treasury directly controls payments—and fraud that happens at the state or local level, where funds are distributed by agencies that Treasury does not oversee directly. The conflation wrongly suggests that the government itself is hemorrhaging money due to systemic corruption, rather than recognizing the complexity of program administration.
In reality, pausing or delaying federal payments doesn’t stop fraud—it just disrupts legitimate benefits while states scramble to adjust.
What does Musk controlling the payment system means?
❌ Social Security, Medicare, and tax refunds could be delayed—or weaponized.
❌ Government workers (and even the military) might not get paid.
❌ Funding for specific states or programs could be blocked based on partisan interests.
❌ Economic collapse? If the wrong payments are stalled or cut, we could face a global market panic.
A former Treasury official told MSNBC:
This system has never been used to execute a partisan agenda. You have to put really bad intentions in place for that to happen.
Bad intentions? You think Musk doesn’t have them?
When Musk took over Twitter in 2022, he promised free speech, an open forum where all voices could be heard. But the first thing he did was gut the verification system. Legacy blue checks—formerly a way to confirm the identities of public figures and journalists—were wiped out overnight, replaced by a pay-to-play model where anyone willing to spend eight dollars can claim authority. Misinformation flooded in. Impersonators and scam artists took over. It is sometimes impossible to tell if a statement has come from the White House or from some guy in his basement.
With verification dismantled, Musk turned his attention to the algorithm. The new model rewarded chaos. Rage-bait and conspiracy theories soared to the top of every feed, while reputable journalism suffocated in the noise. He reinstated banned accounts, welcomed back extremists, white nationalists, and conspiracy theorists who had been deplatformed for spreading hate. And journalists who criticized Musk or his allies found their reach throttled, their voices drowned out in a sea of engagement-farmed propaganda.
Advertisers took one look at the cesspool X had become and fled. But Musk never needed them. He holds a different vision—one where X would no longer rely on corporate sponsors but be bankrolled by the very users it manipulates. He introduced the "For You" feed, ensuring content from paying users—X Premium subscribers—will dominate timelines, no matter how inflammatory or misleading.
And for years, Musk has positioned Starlink as a benevolent force—a satellite network providing internet access to remote regions and war-torn countries. But Musk personally controls where and when Starlink works, a power he had already wielded in Ukraine, denying the government’s military access to its service in key operations. With the flick of a switch, he has the ability to decide who stays online and who disappears into digital darkness.
Imagine this: a protest erupts in a city critical of Musk’s policies. Suddenly, Starlink connectivity in that area becomes "unavailable." Government opposition figures wake up to find their access gone, their calls unable to connect. An election looms, and votes are still being counted—but in certain regions, internet outages prevent crucial reporting. With Starlink, Musk has the power to silence dissent without a single bullet fired.
If controlling speech wasn’t enough, he also seeks control of thought itself—and if this part reads like science fiction just briefly think about the past few years: Boston dynamics dancing robots, mechanical dogs inspecting the Paris subway system at night, and working alongside SWAT teams and bomb squads in Houston, Massachusetts, Tampa, Miami. A global pandemic (remember the movie Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman, Rene Russo, Morgan Freeman?). Artificial intelligence, the return to the moon in April 2026, Mars in 2035—something I never thought I’d see in my lifetime and we are only talking about my early 60s here.
Listen, Tesla’s AI has already been gathering unprecedented amounts of user data, refining algorithms that can predict human behavior with chilling accuracy. Neuralink, still in its infancy, but Musk’s vision is clear—a future where human brains would be directly linked to technology, allowing instantaneous communication between mind and machine. A world where information can be transmitted at the speed of thought. A world where knowledge flows freely, unfiltered by traditional media. A world where reality can be rewritten by the man who controls the network.
With X shaping the news, Starlink controlling access, Tesla monitoring movement, and Neuralink promising a direct line to the human mind, Musk has already done something no government has ever accomplished. He’s well on his way to building a totalizing information empire, one where he—not the press, not the state, not the people—decides what’s real.
And the most terrifying part? No one has voted for him.
So who gets screwed first?
Mike and Linda, both in their 70s, have always voted Republican. They worked their whole lives, paid into Medicare, and now rely on it to cover their prescriptions and doctor visits. But this month, something strange happens. Their Medicare supplement plan suddenly costs double. Their pharmacy tells them their usual co-pay for insulin has tripled. Their doctor’s office warns them: “Medicare is late on reimbursements—we might have to start charging upfront for visits.” Their private Medicare Advantage plan, which relies on federal funding, is suddenly missing money.
Jim, a retired construction worker in Texas, lives on a fixed income. His Social Security check arrives like clockwork—until this month. He logs into his bank account. Nothing. After three hours on hold, he finally gets someone on the line. "Sir, your payment was flagged as part of a fraud prevention audit. You’ll need to provide additional verification." Jim is 74. He doesn’t have a smartphone. His paperwork is all physical. And now he’s supposed to go online and verify his identity. Jim does everything right. He follows the instructions, sends in proof. But by the time his check is finally processed, he’s already overdrafted. His landlord doesn’t care about "fraud audits." His utility company still expects payment.
In Michigan, a rural hospital has already been struggling. Then one day, the funding for Medicare reimbursements stops. The Treasury Department says it’s "reevaluating payments" after Musk’s team "discovered inconsistencies." Strangely, though, hospitals in Texas and Florida seem to be just fine. A week later, Michigan’s Democratic governor publicly criticizes Trump and Musk. The very next day, another $10 million in federal healthcare funding is suddenly delayed.
James, a veteran, gets a notice in the mail. His VA disability payments have been delayed for additional verification. He served in Iraq. He has paperwork proving his injuries. But now, suddenly, he has to re-prove everything. He calls the VA. The wait time? Six hours. Musk’s new "efficiency team" has cut thousands of staff and replaced them with AI chatbots that keep saying, "We’re working on your case. Please hold." Meanwhile, James has rent to pay. His VA-funded therapy sessions get canceled because the clinic isn’t getting reimbursed. He’s stuck, waiting on Musk’s bureaucratic disaster, wondering why the government that sent him to war is now refusing to pay up.
Lisa and her husband were counting on their $4,200 tax refund to cover home repairs. Every year, they get their refund by early March. But this time, nothing arrives. They check the IRS website. A red banner flashes: Due to a comprehensive audit of federal spending, some refunds may be temporarily delayed. Two weeks pass. Then a month. No one knows when the payments will resume. Musk’s team keeps posting cryptic tweets about “massive fraud” in the tax system, but no actual proof. Just vibes. Lisa sees the pattern. Social Security, VA benefits, Medicare reimbursements, tax refunds—all "delayed for review."
This is how authoritarianism starts. Not with tanks in the streets, but with control over money and information:
Delay your benefits.
Make you prove you “deserve” them.
Cut off people Musk doesn’t like.
Watch the chaos unfold.
And the worst part? If you can’t pay your bills because of this, the banks won’t care. The landlords won’t care. Your grocery store won’t care.
Listen, this isn’t a drill. This isn’t a policy debate. This is the entire U.S. financial infrastructure being hijacked in real time, and if we sit back and watch, the damage will be irreversible. If Musk and Trump control the flow of federal payments, they control everything. Who gets paid, who doesn’t. Which states get funding, which ones don’t. Who thrives, and who is forced to bend the knee just to survive. Who eats, who doesn’t.
This isn’t a partisan issue. It’s a power issue. And it affects everyone.
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IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER
Essays I’ve Read
Where Will February 1st, 2026, Take Us? This is the lingering question after reading
January 31 post. The essay doesn’t just haunt but accuses the reader in the quiet realization that history is looping with a crueler edge. The essay dares us to consider whether we will allow the loop to happen again.And, I’m a bit jealous because I would have never thought to thread together February 1sts as a sybolic crossroads that has over and over marked either the march toward freedom or the slow slide into betrayal. 1862. 1865. 1960. 1976. 2023. 2025. Each date a flash point.
The Thirteenth Amendment is passed. Hope.
The Greensboro sit-ins challenge segregation. Hope.
Black History Month becomes official. Hope.
And then, Tyre Nichols is buried. DEI is revoked. Black History Month disappears from the Pentagon.
The Genius of the Last Line, "Mine eyes have seen the glory,” not as a triumph, not as prophecy, but a bitter, twisted echo of what could have been. The essay forces the reader feel the loop in their bones—to realize every battle, every inch of progress, can be undone by the next February 1st. Cox does not yell, does not wave a flag or scream about injustice. Her writing is more dangerous, laying out history until the reader reaches thier own horrifying conclusion.
A double dose of Heather Cox Richardson this week, and this Feburary 1st essay she stares into the abyss and never ever blinks once. Fact upon fact, connection upon connection, each stacked so tightly that by the end, you don’t feel outraged so much as stunned into silence. It’s a suffocating march through the destruction of democracy in real-time, with receipts.
And that’s exactly why Heather Cox Richardson’s work is so necessary and so goddamn exhausting as she draws direct lines between authoritarian creep, institutional destruction, and the terrifyingly mundane ways in which democracy is dismantled one department at a time.
Reading this essay feels like being strapped into a chair while someone recites a laundry list of governmental collapses—but instead of taking place over decades, they are happening simultaneously:
🔹 FBI purged.
🔹 Prosecutors fired.
🔹 Trump loyalists walking free from election fraud cases.
🔹 Random water releases to back up Trump’s conspiracy theories.
🔹 Mass immigrant detentions.
🔹 Trans Americans erased from legal language.
🔹 USAID destroyed—global influence handed to China.
🔹 Musk controlling Treasury payments.
It’s not one single crisis. It’s everything, everywhere, all at once. By the time I got to the seventh or eighth earth-shattering revelation, my brain shut down from too much horror, too fast. Heather Cox Richardson is not bedtime reading. Unless, of course, you enjoy existential dread at 2 a.m. She’s also not good for mornings—unless you like starting your day with a full-blown crisis spiral. Think Post-lunch, mid-afternoon read, when your brain is starting to slump, and you need something that will kick you back into high alert. Richardson’s work is not meant to be enjoyed. It is meant to be survived. And maybe that’s exactly what we need right now.
The Lantern-Bearers by Robert Louis Stevenson (1888)
Stevenson’s essay is old, nostalgic, and deeply poetic—an essay about the magic of childhood, about boys running ,wild on the coast of Scotland, carrying tiny lanterns in the dark, feeling like kings of their own secret world.
"The true realism, always and everywhere, is that of the poets: to find out where joy resides, and give it a voice far beyond singing."
And if that line is not the most perfect articulation of why we write, (why we read), why we look for beauty, why we search for something more than just the mechanics of survival. We are drawn to these stories, of pain and suffering not because we hope—deeply—that if our own trial comes, we might bear half as well. There’s something about watching someone suffer with courage that awakens our own longing to be noble, to be strong, to be more than just reactive creatures. Even in unmerited suffering humbly supported, there is something noble, something deeply human. Stevenson says when we see someone endure unearned suffering with grace, without bitterness, without complaint, that kind of fortitude moves us in a way that almost nothing else does.
If Richardson’s essay was a madcapped brutal dash through political destruction, if Trump and company creates within you the fear of night, The Lantern-Bearers is a reminder of what is worth protecting.
And that final line: Itur in antiquam silvam—"Let us go into the ancient forest." Stevenson points us back toward something primal and essential, something older than the noise of civilization.That final line: Itur in antiquam silvam—"Let us go into the ancient forest."
Stevenson isn’t just waxing nostalgic in The Lantern-Bearers—he’s pointing us back toward something primal and essential, something older than the noise of civilization. Probably the perfect palate cleanser for this week’s dismal Monday Blueprint.
LAST WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET:
🔮 Market Mayhem: The Economy’s Uncertain Future in the Shadow of Tariffs
Trump's trade policies ignited fresh fears across Wall Street. The S&P 500 fell 0.50%, the Dow Jones dropped 0.75%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.28%, while the Russell 2000 led the declines with a 0.86% drop. What began as an uneasy response to Trump's initial tariff threats quickly morphed into full-fledged concern, as the realization of these tariffs hit investor sentiment hard.
The week's market movements underscore how geopolitical decisions can quickly pivot investor optimism to fear. While last week was defined by caution amidst mixed earnings and inflation jitters, this week made one thing clear: the era of smooth sailing is officially over.
Big Themes to Watch:
Trump's Tariffs: Shockwaves Through Global Trade
President Trump made good on his threats to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China—25% on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, effective February 4th. Markets had been jittery but largely resilient until the official announcement landed on Saturday, sparking a wave of sell-offs in sectors with significant trade exposure. Canadian and Mexican currencies tumbled in the aftermath of Trump's announcement, with fears of a looming recession in Canada adding to the global anxiety. Canada and Mexico have already announced retaliatory measures, and China's response is expected soon. And economists are already predicting that Canada could slip into recession, with U.S. GDP also facing downward pressure if tariffs remain in place.
Inflation and the Fed's Next Moves: A Waiting Game
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, emphasizing a data-driven approach. But inflation is the key wildcard. Economists are now predicting that tariffs could add 0.3% to 0.6% to inflation over the next few months, potentially pushing core PCE inflation above 3%. The uphill battle for the Fed forces them into a "wait-and-see" mode that doesn’t leave much room for immediate action.
Tech Stocks and Trade Policy: Facing the Crossfire
Two weeks ago, tech stocks were leading the charge, but this week Nvidia (-3.67%) and Apple (-0.67%) fell, weighed down by concerns about global trade impacts on supply chains. Microsoft (MSFT) barely budged (+0.02%), but uncertainty over how tariffs might affect tech supply chains is clouding the sector’s outlook. Earnings reports next week from Amazon and Alphabet could provide insight into how major tech players are handling this uncertainty. TikTok negotiations are now linked to broader trade discussions, with the potential for significant shakeups in the tech sector.
Looking Ahead: A Volatile Start to 2025
The next few weeks could set the tone for the entire first quarter. Investors are grappling with the dual challenges of rising geopolitical risks and uncertain inflationary pressures. Markets are likely to remain volatile as they digest the implications of trade policies, potential Fed reactions, and upcoming earnings results. With Trump’s tariffs now a reality, 2025 has taken an unexpected turn. Investors are no longer just dealing with market sentiment shifts—they’re facing structural changes that could reshape the economic landscape. If you need to buy a new phone, eReader tablet, or vehicle, and you have the loose cash might want to get on that now before the tarrifs hit galeforce winds. How will global trade relations evolve as retaliatory tariffs take hold? Can tech stocks rebound amid rising costs and geopolitical headwinds? Will inflation pressures push the Fed to reassess its current stance? Or, will Trump be able to corner the Fed into actually lowering interest rates much like he and Musk forced David Lebryk from the Treasury? Whatever happens, batten down the hatches—2025’s storm is just beginning, and the waves are looking rough.
Question of the Week
💰Your financial future is now a dystopian novel. What’s the title, and what’s the first song on the author’s writing playlist? (Hint: It’s a Taylor Swift song.)
ACK! And there is an update to this story from the time I wrote the beast yesterday.
Right now, Elon Musk and a group of 18-to-24-year-olds—one of whom literally just graduated high school in 2024—have access to the U.S. Treasury system responsible for processing every single government payment. That's one hell of an internship opportunity.
--https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-government-young-engineers/