The Kid is Moving Out
05.02.25 The Friday Footnote: My kid’s moving out, and the downtown market’s moving too. Walkable homes, price drops, and one adorable 2BR ranch you need to see.
Boxes and Boyfriends
I’m a horrible person.
My oldest daughter had her last choreographed performance at Dean College a few weeks ago. She walks for her bachelor’s in fine arts and dance next Saturday, so this previous performance was kinda big deal. Except, with the condition of my foot at the time, I did not attend the performance. Instead, I stayed home watching old Star Trek TV shows. My wife and youngest went to the performance, and little did I know, we were also being introduced to her new boyfriend. So I missed all of that.
When my wife Mary returned, she said the whole ordeal was awkward because I wasn’t there to make fun of the new boyfriend. I was indignant. “I don’t make fun of people like that.” She was like No, that’s your role, that’s what you do—if you’re not there to do that, then I don’t have anyone to yell at and put in their place, and we’re just stuck sitting around a table eating bad Italian and staring at each other.
I didn’t know I held that vital spot in the family dynamic.
Anyway.
Over the next few days, Mary started telling me about the new boyfriend and how she thought Abigail was going to move in with him.
“How do you know?” I asked.
“Just a feeling.”
“So you don’t really know know then?”
“No. I don’t.”
But Mary kept bringing the idea up, and it started to bug me because she didn’t know for sure, and it was all a bunch of just hunches.
“I’m going to call her,” I said.
“No, no, don’t do that,” Mary said.
To give you some context, I had lived with a woman for a couple years in my twenties so I wasn’t too concerned about my daughter hooking up with some random dude cause (and this is where the horrible part comes in) I’ve been eyeballing her bedroom for some time now wondering if I could turn it into a home office. So when I called her and asked about her moving in with this dude, I never really heard silence over the phone until then. The pause was palpable. And I realized, she was scared that I was upset. I just let the silence hang longer because, well, I thought it was funny.
Then, finally, she said, “How did you know?”
“Mom.”
“How did she know?”
“I don’t know.”
And then more wonderful silence.
Finally, though, I let her off the hook. “Look, I just need a date. When are you getting your shit out of my house?”
The Chapelle Roan poster is still on the wall. The bed is still there. And May 19th is the date. If anyone has any spare boxes, I can start packing before she even arrives.
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🏠 Homes within 0.5–1 mile of downtown Dover
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🧠 Includes brief notes: “Walkable but near 3 vacant storefronts” or “Block poised for rebound”
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Buyers hunting long-term upside or value dips
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Sellers watching their street and wondering if now is the time
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The Bare Bones Numbers 💀📉
"Spring Inventory Surge or Just a Mirage?"
If you’re looking at just one number this week, make it 4.3 months of inventory. That’s the highest we’ve seen since pre-COVID days when bidding wars were the exception, not the expectation. But don’t break out the champagne just yet—buyers haven’t exactly caught up to the memo, and sellers still think their kitchen reno from 2006 justifies a premium.
The median price ticked back up to $545,000 statewide, after the whiplash of April’s wild swings. And affordability? Still rough at 66.2—which is to say, better than that hell-scream 53 we saw mid-April, but let’s not pretend that $545K is within reach for most folks without six-figure income, generational wealth, or a tolerance for house-poor living.
Inventory Is Up. But So Is Confusion.
What we’re in now is less “buyer’s market” and more “paradox market.” There’s more to choose from, but fewer clear deals. Buyers are circling, but cautious. Sellers are listing, but testing the top end. Agents? Agents are tired. And behind the scenes, every transaction is now a chess game with three clocks ticking—rates, pricing, and patience.
So is this the moment to strike? Maybe. If you're a buyer: look close, negotiate hard, and be patient—but not passive. The good stuff still moves in days. For sellers: this is your window. You're not in total control anymore, but you're still holding decent cards. Play them wisely.
Watch the shift. This market isn’t collapsing—it’s converting. From hype to strategy. From frenzy to friction. And that’s where savvy people win.
Want a personal market breakdown? Trying to time your sale, scout undervalued pockets, or avoid the ghost listings no one's talking about? Send me a Message with the subject line: “Run My Numbers.”
I'll break it down. No fluff. Just facts and a few strategic swears.
📍 Statewide New Hampshire Housing Market
Active Listings: 1,662
Closed Sales (Last 6 Months): 2315
Pending Sales: 689
Median Sales Price: $545,000
Median Days on Market (DOM): 8
Inventory: 4.3 months
Affordability Index: 66.2
📍 Seacoast Area
Active Listings: 282
Closed Transactions (Last 6 Months): 449
Pending Transactions: 173
Days on Market (DOM):
Highest: 171
Average: 19
Median: 8
Pricing Trends:
Lowest List Price: $150,000
Lowest Sold Price: $199,999
Average List Price: $873,158
Average Sold Price: $694,768
Median List Price: $634,900
Median Sold Price: $590,000
📍 Tri-City Area (Dover, Somersworth, Rochester)
Active Listings: 53
📍 Durham, Newmarket, Madbury & Lee
Active Listings: 6
📍 Portsmouth & Newington
Active Listings: 39
PROPERTY OF THE WEEK
🛏️2 Beds, 🛁1 Baths, 📏760 sq ft, $400,000
Estimated payment: $3,019/mo
Estimation provided by Keller Williams Realty Inc.
Contact a mortgage broker today!
What a great way to start homeownership, with this adorable ranch that has so many updates, you really just need to move in. This is also a perfect home for buyers that want to downsize. As soon as you walk in you will fall in love with the beautiful hardwood floor and open concept design. The kitchen has white cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Brand new floors, vanity, mirror, light and toilet adorn the bathroom, with the convenience of a washer and dryer right there. The entire interior has been freshly painted, from the walls to the trim. Front deck is just a few years old. Furnace, oil tank and hot water heater installed in 2023. New bulkhead to basement was also installed in 2023. The deck was installed in 2021 and new fence was just installed last year. Willard Pond is directly behind the back yard, with conservation land and walking trails all around the pond. Located minutes from downtown Dover, with restaurants within walking distance. Showings start at open house. Saturday from 10:00-12:00 and Sunday from 11:00-1:00.
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