Where’s the Beef? Housing is a Mess
03.14.25 The Friday Footnote: Here’s What You Need to Know (and Do)
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In the Real Estate Market
Inventory remains critically low in New Hampshire with just 1.4 months’ supply statewide. More homes are available than last year and are taking longer to sell, but pricing continues to climb, purring affordability at an all-time low. but the market is still tight.
📍 Statewide New Hampshire Housing Market
Active Listings: 1,203
Closed Sales (February 2025): 612 (+5% YoY)
Pending Sales: 721 (+2% YoY)
Median Sales Price: $510,000 (+7.4% YoY)
Days on Market (DOM): 44 days (up from 39 last year)
Inventory: 1.4 months' supply (up slightly but still critically low)
Affordability Index: 59 (historic low)
📍 Seacoast Area
Active Listings: 223
Closed Transactions (Last 6 Months): 535
Pending Transactions: 113
Days on Market (DOM):
Highest: 135 days
Average: 17 days
Median: 8 days
Pricing Trends:
Lowest List Price: $199,000
Lowest Sold Price: $199,999
Average List Price: $748,912
Average Sold Price: $748,559
Median List Price: $585,000
Median Sold Price: $590,000
📍 Tri-City Area (Dover, Somersworth, Rochester)
Active Listings: 35
📍 Durham, Newmarket, Madbury & Lee
Active Listings: 7
📍 Portsmouth & Newington
Active Listings: 30
February marked 61 consecutive months of year-over-year price increases. Back in 2013, the median household income could purchase a ginormous house. But in general, consumers of all types are scaling back spending. As reported in the Morning Brew, Todd Vasos Dollar General CEO told investors that customers “only have enough money for basic essentials. The Wall Street Journal has reported demand dropping at Target, Lowe’s, and Foot Locker. Walmart, McDonald’s, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Costco are all asking where’s the beef where are the customers?
And according to the Bank of America Institute, across all income groups, wage growth has plunged. These two articles exposing Dover and Rochester city employee wages from Foster’s Daily were fun reads—what was more fun to read were the Facebook comments about how we’ve been paying people too much.
The $100k salary benchmark has long been considered a solid middle-to-upper-middle class income. But with the rising home prices and declining affordability, the purchasing price of a $100k salary has dramatically eroded.
👉 In 2015, a $100K salary could comfortably afford a median home.
👉 By 2020, home prices rose, but affordability was still manageable.
👉 In 2025, a $100K salary buys half the home it did a decade ago.
Home prices have skyrocketed, having increased by over 104% since 2015, and affordability has completely collapsed. Mortgage rates and inflation and can we talk bird flu and eight dollar eggs? Purchasing power seems to be slipping away into the nether. But maybe we’ll be outsourcing our eggs from Denmark and other European nations soon, despite the tariff-induced trade war. The Agriculture Department announced egg prices could rise by another 40 percent before the year’s end.
But back to houses and our overpaid civil servants.
📍 Dover, NH (124 Employees Earning $100K+)
City Manager: $259,124
Fire Chief (Retired): $237,113
Firefighter/Paramedic: $213,944 (Overtime Boosted)
Police Chief: $186,122
Superintendent: $171,801
Right now, we have 19 homes for sale in Dover. The median active price is $1,130,000. The lowest priced home is $489,000. And we only have two homes in the $500k range.
Using affordability calculations based on income-to-home-price ratios, mortgage assumptions, and current housing market data, a safe home purchase is typically three times the annual salary. The Dover City Manager can’t even afford the median home price in Dover right now. The fire chief, a $950k home with the overtime figured in. The Superintendent can afford $685k. The police chief? $750k. The typical $100k earners—we’re looking at teachers, city workers, firefighters, they can afford between $400 and $500k max.
Additionally, the highest paid employees, those are five individuals so somebody is going to need a roommate because out of those nineteen homes available, only three are within financial reach.
📍Rochester’s highest-paid workers:
City Manager: $178K
Police Chief: $149K
Superintendent: $170K
Fire Chief: $140K
Rochester fairs better here with currently 12 homes for sale with the lowest-priced home sitting at $199k, but this is a 1971 manufactured home that needs an all cash purchase. The median active price is $497,000. Our well-paid city officials can easily pick up these homes, but we move down a tier to our teachers, junior city staff, they’re going to find a difficult path.
If this wasn’t already hard enough, the federal government just pulled the rug out from under affordable housing projects. The Trump and his DOGE cronies halted $1 billion in HUD funding that was designated to preserve and renovate affordable housing across the country. Tens of thousands of low-income housing units are now at risk of falling into disrepair or disappearing entirely.
This puts more pressure on the already-heated rental market, which means higher rents and fewer options for people who can’t afford to buy. Did I mention that New Hampshire has a less than 1% rental vacancy rate?
Meanwhile, cities like Dover and Rochester are already pricing out their own workforce—and now, with fewer affordable housing protections, the rental market is about to tighten even more.
There is some hope. The state is considering a number of housing regulations. House 382 will limit parking requirements for residential, workforce housing, and multifamily developments. House Bill 459 prevents towns from requiring excessively large lot sizes. House Bill 399 will create a study commission to review and modernize New Hampshire’s outdated zoning laws.
Still. The New Hampshire housing market seems to be unraveling. Or maybe already has unraveled.
Look. Buyers, sellers, and policymakers alike—whoever you are—need to adapt to this not so new real estate reality. If you’re in the market in any capacity, the key is knowledge plus strategy—knowing where to look, how to negotiate, and when to act. Or when not to act at all. And over the past week, I’ve developed a new online tool that can actually do that for you—provide you with the knowledge and help you think through the strategy.
Here’s the kicker though. The tool is not quite ready. I need beta testers. I need to find all the bugs in the tool that might not work how I expect, and even more importantly, I need to make sure the tool does what it’s supposed to do—provide you with that very specific, very individualized knowledge and strategy.
So you don’t have to want to sell or want to buy. You don’t even have to be my client cause I’m not trying to sell you on my real estate services here at all. Heck, you can even be another Realtor just wanting to learn what sneaky marketing thing I’m up to next. That’s fine too.
Just send me a message! And I’ll be in touch, and I’ll get you started, and then after you are in, you can tell me about all the things I did wrong.
PROPERTY OF THE WEEK
🛏️3 Beds, 🛁2 Baths, 📏1,784 sq ft, $599,000
📅Open House: Sun 3/16 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Estimated payment: $4,517/mo
Estimation provided by Keller Williams Realty Inc.
Contact a mortgage broker today!
Welcome to 32 Elmview Circle, nestled in the heart of Dover, NH, less than a mile from Downtown. This inviting home offers a blend of modern updates and classic charm, perfect for anyone seeking comfort and convenience.
As you enter, you'll immediately notice the stunning hardwood floors leading you to the beautifully updated kitchen, a chef's delight with its gleaming granite countertops, contemporary cabinetry, and state-of-the-art stainless steel appliances. This space is perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining guests. Additionally, a beautiful bonus room invites you to family game nights or quiet and peaceful isolation.
Downstairs, the partially finished basement features a dedicated office space. Whether you're working from home or need a quiet retreat for studying, this area provides the ideal work environment with plenty of natural light.
Outside, the fenced-in backyard offers privacy and tranquility. It's a perfect spot for hosting barbecues, playing with pets, or simply enjoying a peaceful afternoon in your own private oasis.
Located in a friendly neighborhood, 32 Elmview Circle offers easy access to local amenities, schools, and parks, making it an ideal place to call home. Don't miss the chance to make this charming property yours. Schedule a visit today and experience all that this wonderful home has to offer!
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