Build While It Burns.
04/21/25 The Monday Blueprint: Trump’s tariff tantrum is triggering real-world fallout, and if you've been waiting for a perfect moment to build something bold... this might be your red alert.
The Rules Just Changed:
Brace For Impact. No Money Down. No Turning Back.
I’ll be holding open office hours this Tuesday at Breakaway Café from 10am to 1pm. You can schedule something official if you like: click here. Or you can just show up, grab a coffee, and drop into the chaos with me.
Because this week—whether we want to admit it or not—the rules changed. Financially. Fundamentally. And overnight. So now, I might be buying property. With no money down. In what could be the most brilliant boneheaded economic move of the decade. Or the dumbest. It’s hard to tell yet.
If you’ve been around me long enough too, you’ll probably have heard me talk about this hypothetical River Roots bookstore I want to open. The timing wasn’t supposed to be now. The plan was slower, more deliberate. But Trump’s tariffs shook the monopoly board hard. And somehow, what wasn’t viable for a long while is suddenly in reach today. A lot has to go right for this opportunity to work out, of course. There’s a distinct possibility I’m dead in the water after just one phone call. But I won’t know unless I make that first phone call.
And if you’ve been sitting on a plan, a project, a maybe-one-day dream, that you thought had to wait…
Maybe it doesn’t have to wait. Maybe this might be the moment to reassess. The moment to pause the plan, burn it all down and build the damn thing now.
Let me be your first phone call, and come have coffee with me.
No pressure. No sales. Just an open seat and a one-on-one strategy session to help you figure out what your next move might be.
LAST WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET:
Surging baby strollers, and the economy just Janewayed the Kessel Run into a Fed crisis.1
Last week, your taxes were due. And by Friday, the U.S. stock futures turned redder than a New England boiled lobstah. Even the mighty Nividai are down -2.93%; although, weirdly with some bad ass meme energy Hertz rent-a-car at +43.87. And, of course, Trump Media up at 11.65%.
S&P Futures: 5,257.00 (▼ -1.05%)
Dow Futures: 38,971.00 (▼ -0.91%)
Nasdaq Futures: 18,168.75 (▼ -1.15%)
Russell 2000: 1,874.20 (▼ -0.81%)
This isn’t a garden-variety sell-off. This is policy-induced turbulence. Trump’s tariff machine is in overdrive, jacking costs on everything from bananas to baby strollers. Meanwhile, he’s threatening to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, rattling the very foundation of U.S. monetary policy. Major companies are bracing for impact, with over 120 S&P 500 earnings reports dropping later this week. Until then, expect more volatility, uncertainty, and a lot of CEOs saying “we’re cautiously optimistic” while quietly hoarding cash like it’s 2020. This is basically your run-of-the-mill chaos with a side of constitutional crisis.
Big Themes to Watch:
1. Trust Collapse in Real Time.
Trump threatening to fire Jerome Powell, SCOTUS dangling the Fed’s independence over a legal precipice, and everyone whispering “2020 flashbacks,” we’re watching investor psychology fracture. The Fed isn’t supposed to be a political pawn, but now it’s in the crosshairs—and that alone is enough to spook global capital. Technically, by the way, the prez is not supposed to be able to fire the chair of the Federal Reserve.
➡️ Watch for: Flight to gold, crypto, and emerging market currencies. A weakening dollar despite higher yields. And institutional investors hinting they’re moving assets offshore. Quietly. And Chinese banks poised to expand globally with pressure to bill in the yaun, not dollars.
2. Tariffs Aren’t Just Policy—They’re Math
The tariff fallout is no longer hypothetical. It’s bananas—literally—and strollers, cribs, car seats, pineapples, and fish. Businesses like Munchkin and small grocers are holding prices only because they’re bracing for May hikes. The lull before the storm just became the storm before the storm.
➡️ Watch for: Q2 guidance revisions to include margin compression. Retail inventory hoarding. Baby gear inflation headlines that make Wall Street bros suddenly care about strollers. And a rising wave of small business closures, especially among specialty retailers.
3. Earnings Season = Exposure Therapy
Alphabet and Tesla lead off a week where 120+ S&P companies report—and while Q1 numbers will look okay, the forward guidance is going to sting. Tariffs aren’t fully priced in. Energy and shipping costs are creeping back up. And "macro headwinds" are about to become the new "supply chain issues." Wait, what are macro headwinds? high interest rates, inflation, geopolitical instability, currency fluctuations, weak consumer confidence, regulatory shifts, global slowdowns: all the big messy stuff we can’t control is going to make everything suck.
➡️ Watch for: Big tech sandbagging Q2. Consumer goods companies hedging like hell. And analysts asking “how exposed are you to China?” in ways that sound polite but are threat assessments.
Looking Ahead:
1. April 23—Beige Book: the Vibe Check Gets Official
On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book drops—a collection of economic whispers from across the country. Normally dry as toast, this edition could see some whiskey-infused butter spread. Expect anecdotes from retailers hoarding inventory, manufacturers freaking over freight, and real estate agents quietly rewriting Q2 expectations. It won’t say “tariff panic,” but it’ll read like a national group text full of emojis and polite doom.
2. April 24—Durable Goods and New Home Sales: Cracks in the Concrete
Thursday brings March’s durable goods orders and new home sales—two deeply unsexy reports (I mean if you think the beige book is dry toast) but that suddenly matter a lot. Builders have been offering perks to tempt buyers off the sidelines, but higher input costs and a jittery lending environment could freeze momentum. If these numbers dip? That’s the whisper before the residential slowdown scream.
3. April 26—Japan CPI and G20 Finance Meet: Global Pushback Begins
On Friday, Japan reports consumer prices—one of the first snapshots from a major U.S. trade partner since the tariff drama began. That same day, G20 finance ministers gather in Washington. Expect coordinated side-eyes at the U.S., new pressure on the dollar’s dominance, and more countries making quiet moves toward yuan-based settlement. This is the beginning of “We’ll find another way.”
4. Late April—Retail Bloodletting Begins
Multiple small retailers (especially baby and boutique supply chains) warned that they’re stocked through April—but May’s going to hurt. Watch for closures, steep discounting, and early whispers of bankruptcies. This is the stretch where the backbone of Main Street either holds—or I don’t know cause when car seats become luxury goods, you know the system’s blinking red alert.
OUR FEATURED BUSINESS
(Yes, we mixed Star Trek and Star Wars. Yes, it was on purpose.)