Traffic Lights, Boom Boom Wealth, and the Shoreline of Decision-Making
03/10/25 The Monday Blueprint:
TL:DR: Notes on real estate mogul Gary Keller’s Red Light, Green Light strategy. I also reviewed essays on performative wealth, transgender teen vooices, and climate change. Plus the stock market flailed over tariffs, jobs, and Fed policy.
I Consulted a MIT Economist and a 2004 Business Book and All I Got Was This Blog Post
I’m not an economist, but I play one on TV.
And recently I’ve been diving into Jon Gruber’s introductory economics lectures. I’ve even managed to exchange a few emails with The Grub, cause it turns out professors actually do respond when you ask good questions.
Two of the core pedagogical models I work from are Jean Piaget and Lev Vygotsky’s work in constructivism and George Siemens’ connectivism. The constructivist learning theory purports that knowledge is actively constructed rather than passively absorbed. Connectivism argues learning is a networked phenomenon. Together, these frameworks in practice enhance the retention durability, generate knowledge, and foster cognitive synthesis. That’s a fancy way of saying learning sticks with you and turns information into insight. It’s the birthplace of new ideas, really.
You can watch Gruber work these two pedagogies when he uses classroom examples centering around parents providing their college-age kids with a monthly allowance. That’s a real life moment in these kids’ lives.
Obviously I’m not in the circa 2018 class but I’m watching these students ask questions that are simply embedded within the lecture material—really not pushing beyond what was being taught. They mostly pulled examples or clarifying points rather than challenging concepts or applying the concepts in new ways.
Because I’m not in the class, I’ve been watching the lectures alongside ChatGPT, who acts as my underqualified TA. Or having been a TA, overqualified—haven’t exactly figured that part out yet. But the questions I’ve been asking, I don’t know if I’m asking these questions because of my overall life experience, or because I’m just old in general. I mean, it’s not like I’m miles ahead of the students, I’m still grasping the concepts. Just my focus is different.
That’s a long-winded way of getting around to the idea that for the past three and a half years, I’ve been following Gary Keller’s Red Light, Green Light financial strategy from The Millionaire Real Estate Agent.
Red Light 🔴 – Stop spending when the revenue doesn’t support it.
Green Light 🟢 – Spend when the revenue justifies it.
The logic is airtight—every dollar spent should be accountable to income. No speculative spending, no blind risk-taking. And yet, the longer I worked in real estate, the more I saw the limitations of this approach. Sometimes, I was saying maybe?
Keller’s Red Light, Green Light assumes clear, measurable outcomes—either you have the money to justify a purchase, or you don’t. But in real-world decision-making, things aren’t necessarily that simple. Some expenses or investments sit in a gray area—not quite justifiable yet, but not necessarily a bad idea. This is where The Grub enters. In lecture 6, he defines opportunity cost, profit maximization, and search costs.
If you haven’t noticed, Coffee With Steve has increased in frequency and content. And in fact, the publication has increased in frequency and content to the point of me not being able to keep up with the social media outreach that goes alongside the newsletter.
Well, I can keep up, but the social media aspect is at least another ten to fifteen hours of work per week. So I’ve been considering hiring a Virtual Assistant to pretend to be me on all the socials because if I had that VA, I’d free up those ten to fifteen hours to lead generate or close more real estate deals. Or, perhaps, write more.
The opportunity cost is the time plus the potential commissions I’d miss out on because I’m spending the time on social media. I’d also lose out on the potential creative work I could have produced.
Profit maximization occurs when a business produces goods or services up to the point where marginal revenue equals marginal cost. Basically, the last product you produce is a zero sum game—it adds as much revenue as it does cost.
So if hiring a VA costs $1000 per month but allows me to close an extra $5000 in commissions, the decision makes sense. But if the VA only saves me time without increasing revenue? For example, say the VA costs $1000 and I only close an extra $1000. Maybe the benefit in extra creative work justifies that status quo. But if a VA costs $1000 and I bring in an extra $900 in commissions, that is beyond the profit-maximization point because I’m losing money.
Search costs are a bit more straightforward, I feel. It’s the time, effort, and resources spent gathering information before making a decision. High search costs make decisions more difficult and expensive, while low search costs make them easier and more efficient.
The Grub described this process of evaluating opportunity cost, profit maximization, and search costs as a business taking steps up and down blindly—increasing production (or investment) until they reach the decision point where the business must evaluate whether continuing production is beneficial or they should stop.
This all got me thinking about Keller’s Red Light, Green Light strategy. Because, like I said, sometimes I didn’t have a straight-forward red light or green light. Sometimes I had a maybe. Keller’s system is great, but it assumes certainty—Gruber’s lecture on opportunity cost, profit maximization, and search costs help explain why uncertainty requires a different approach.
See what’s happening here? By applying Gruber’s economic principles to my real estate business, I’m actively constructing knowledge—classic constructivist pedagogy in action. But then, something else clicked (connectivism at work). I wasn’t just absorbing information; I was connecting ideas across disciplines. Keller’s Red Light, Green Light system made sense, but it was missing something. What if decision-making wasn’t always a hard stop or a full go? What if we had a Yellow Light!?
The Yellow Light Strategy is the middle ground—the “maybe” that Keller’s system doesn’t account for. It’s a structured way to navigate uncertainty by testing before committing.
Here’s how it plays out in my VA hiring decision:
Red Light 🔴: I don’t hire the VA. I save money, but I lose 10–15 hours per week that could have gone toward lead generation, real estate deals, or creative work.
Yellow Light 🟡: I test first. Instead of hiring right away, I act as my own VA for a quarter—tracking exactly how much time social media takes, what tasks I could realistically delegate, and whether reclaiming that time would result in more income. If the data proves it’s a smart investment, I move to Green Light. If not, I adjust.
Green Light 🟢: I hire the VA immediately. If the numbers work (costing $1,000 but bringing in $5,000 in extra commissions), great! If not, I might be locking into an expense that doesn’t maximize profit.
Or, you know when you’re coming up to a traffic light, and suddenly it flips from green to yellow? You hesitate—should you stop? Should you gun it? You decide to go for it. Maybe you slide through the intersection like the pro race car driver that you are. Or maybe that light turns pinker than you preferred, and now you’re regretting the move. In business, though, the beauty of the Yellow Light Strategy is that you can back up the car. You can retest, re-evaluate, and readjust—ensuring that when you finally commit, you’re making the right call.
IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER
Essays I’ve Read
For the past two years, I've gone without a winter coat. This year, I bought one at Walmart and thought it too warm even on the blistering coldest days. The coat I owned before, lasted ten years. The lining became unattached and no one noticed the hole in the armpit. It was an LL Bean, and I almost didn't purchase it because it was over a hundred bucks, but I was facing down -30 Wyoming winters. Sometimes, when I go to work I just sit in pajama bottoms--both the curse and the blessing of working from home. I have no idea who Chappell is, and Emilia Petrarca is in a very real moment when critiquing the so-called Boom Boom fashionista while yearning for a $6000 purse in her essay Can I Boom Boom? Falling for, and fretting over, the gilded and greedy new aesthetic.
The whole discussion feels a bit detached from reality. Who cares if people are cos-playing Wall Street sharks when real people are deciding between Walmart coats or whether an LL Bean investment is worth the cash. I do, by the way, own a suit which hangs in the closet awaiting a desperate dry clean.
Petrarca’s essay feels like a critique of a hollow Gatsby, really; a Gatsby who isn’t chasing a green light, just flashing his wealth for the sake of being seen. No tragic longing, no deep internal conflict, just aesthetics for aesthetics’ sake. Instead of throwing lavish parties in the hope Daisy will walk through the door, boom boom is about throwing the party, about being watched just as Anne Hathaway was oogled dancing to Anaconda at a Versace runway show after party. Wealth and excess have become the performance itself.
Boom boom is without the yearning that made Gatsby compelling.
Petrarca is in full Dr. TJ Eckleburg mode—watching over the spectacle, critiquing the spectacle, but also clearly caught up in the spectacle. Look at these people, she says. Aren’t they ridiculous? But damn, right?
Last week, my wife and I attended the New Hampshire Outright caretaker meeting--this happens on the first Friday of the month, and I haven't attended in a while because of the ankle mobility issue. But I made a point of it and crutched across the long stretch of parking lot, managed to get inside the building, which was under construction, so was forced into taking the long way about to reach the elevator. This March's meeting was important because Outright's executive director Heidi Carrington1 was showing up to update us on some of the movement in the state legislative, concerning HB 377, HB712, HB148.
It seems like a small issue, but one of my struggles as a writer is dealing with silence in narrative. Silence in storytelling is never silent. You find the noises that fill the silence: the heating system kicking on, the random voices echoing through the halls, the airplane overhead. There is always something. But in the moments between the questions posed--I've never heard such weighted, empty silences. The quiet pressed against my ribs, made me involuntarily hold my breath until someone finally exhaled words.
I can’t rightly critique or review Anya Kamenetz’s piece How Trans Teens Are Dealing With Trump 2.0, in Their Words. She only collected the words of others and put together a short compilation. If anything, my only critique would be that Kamenetz included only 11 voices, when there are so many more left unheard.
There’s a tension in pieces like this: they give a window into an experience but inevitably leave so many perspectives out. What do we not hear?
I think it is the in-between silences that we miss. That palpable fear. The unbelievability of a nation we thought free.
Greta Pratt’s Jamestown Is Sinking is an elegy told in images.
This is a shorter essay than what I normally read, but its weight doesn’t come from word count. I think maybe what drew me to this short piece is our own New Hampshire reckoning with the ocean.
Pratt’s photographs, in conjunction with Daegan Miller’s reflection on an ever changing river, ask us to stop and look. The man mowing his perfect green lawn on the edge of the ocean is an image of denial, of stubbornness, of trying to maintain normalcy even as the world shifts beneath him. The bicycle, wheels half-submerged beneath a rippling American flag, is both resilience and abandonment—patriotism standing in floodwaters, unmoving, but still there. And the girl in the water, lifting her pants, holding her belongings close to her shoulder, with the shirt that says “not listening,” trying to avoid what can’t be avoided.
The temptation is to skim, to let the images wash over without stopping to feel the water at our ankles.
But this essay/photo montage is a quiet and urgent meditation on history, climate change, and the slow erosion of place. The Tidewater region of Virginia, home to England’s first permanent colony in America, slips beneath rising waters. What was once foundational to the American myth now dissolves in the gradual, relentless ocean creep.
The brilliance of Jamestown Is Sinking lies in restraint. Neither Pratt nor Miller shout. Nor do they force an argument. But their work makes undeniably clear that Jamestown—its history and landscape—is not just at risk of drowning; whether we choose to listen or not, the tide is already here.
And so much of what’s happening in the world—whether history, politics, or the environment—comes down to that refusal to listen to one another. But this time, the ocean we ignore speaks a different, quieter language. A language that forces us pause before we can really understand.
LAST WEEK IN THE STOCK MARKET:
Rate Cuts, Tariffs, and Jobs
The U.S. markets closed a volatile week with a mixed performance as investors grappled with escalating trade tensions, a shifting labor market, and evolving Federal Reserve policy expectations. Despite brief recoveries, uncertainty over tariffs, rate cuts, and economic growth kept markets on edge.
The S&P 500 gained 0.55%, the Dow Jones added 0.52%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.70%, rebounding slightly after a rough stretch earlier in the week. However, the broader market remains in correction territory, with lingering weakness in key sectors. The Russell 2000 climbed 0.43%, reflecting resilience among small-cap stocks despite broader macroeconomic concerns.
Bond yields remained relatively stable, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 4.25%, as investors balanced rate cut expectations against inflationary pressures.
Commodities saw divergent moves—Crude oil advanced 1.04% to $67.05 per barrel, reflecting supply-side uncertainties, while gold declined 0.30% to $2,917.70, as risk sentiment shifted back and forth throughout the week.
Big Themes to Watch:
1. Tariffs & Trade War Escalation
President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies sent shockwaves through the markets:
25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico went into effect on March 4, only to be partially paused on March 6 for USMCA-compliant goods.
China tariffs doubled (10% → 20%), prompting Beijing to retaliate with 15% duties on U.S. farm goods.
Trump also threatened tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy, sparking diplomatic tensions.
In response, Canada pulled U.S. spirits (including Jack Daniel’s) from liquor stores, hitting the U.S. whiskey industry. But just not whiskey, American products in general are off the shelves.
Corporate impact:
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) plunged 11.97%, citing supply chain risks from tariffs.
Retailers like Target (TGT) and Costco (COST) flagged rising consumer prices, adding pressure to inflation expectations.
Best Buy (BBY) warned that pricing volatility could affect electronics demand in coming quarters.
2. The February Jobs Report: Signs of a Slowdown
151,000 jobs were added, below the expected 160,000, though still better than January’s 125,000.
Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% (from 4.0%), reflecting a cooling labor market.
Wage growth slowed to 4% YoY, easing inflationary concerns but signaling potential weaker consumer spending ahead.
The labor force participation rate fell to 62.4%, raising questions about longer-term labor market dynamics.
Retail sector layoffs surged, shedding 40,000 jobs—six times more than the same period last year.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led job cuts, with 62,000 federal layoffs, further reshaping the employment landscape.
3. The Fed’s Patience on Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is in no hurry to cut rates, despite market expectations for three cuts in 2025.
Powell stated: “The economy is fine. It doesn’t need us to do anything, really, so we can wait and we should wait.”
Investor reaction: Markets pared back some rate cut bets, though weaker job data kept hopes alive for a mid-year reduction.
4. Bitcoin & Crypto Market Turmoil
The White House launched a strategic Bitcoin reserve, seeding it with 200,000 BTC ($17 billion worth) from past federal seizures. To be clear, they’re not buying cryptocurrencies, they’re only stockpiling what they already have seized from various criminal or civil proceedings.
Bitcoin tumbled 4.22% to $85,995.95, amid uncertainty over government policy and market sentiment shifts.
Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) also posted declines, reflecting broader digital asset volatility.
Looking Ahead:
March 18-19 Fed Meeting – Will the Fed acknowledge slowing growth, or will Powell maintain his cautious stance?
April 2 Tariff Deadline – The temporary pause on USMCA-compliant goods expires; markets await potential trade war escalations.
Inflation Data Release (March 12) – With tariffs and labor market shifts, consumer prices will be a critical signal for Fed policy.
Keep an eye out for an upcoming Wicked Moxie interview with Heidi Carrington.